Original ArticleValidated Prediction Model for the Development of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in Individuals with Ocular Hypertension
Section snippets
Materials and Methods
The OHTS11 and EGPS14 are both randomized clinical trials that tested the safety and efficacy of topical ocular hypotensive medication in delaying or preventing the development of POAG in individuals with ocular hypertension. The OHTS and EGPS protocols are described in their respective baseline design articles.15, 16 The OHTS protocol is also available at https://vrcc.wustl.edu. The protocol of each study was approved by the institutional review boards of all participating clinics and resource
Results
Baseline demographic and clinical features of participants who did or did not develop POAG in the OHTS observation group and EGPS placebo group are reported in Table 3, Table 4. The percentages of participants developing POAG in Table 4 were not adjusted for duration of follow-up.
In the OHTS observation group, the Kaplan–Meier estimate of the 5-year cumulative probability of developing POAG was 9.3% (104/819; median follow-up of 6.6 years). In the EGPS placebo group, the Kaplan–Meier estimate
Discussion
Using data from the OHTS observation group, we developed a multivariate model that identified baseline older age, higher IOP, larger vertical C/D ratio, thinner central corneal measurement, and greater PSD as predictive factors for the development of POAG in ocular hypertensive individuals. When the generalizability of the OHTS model was tested by applying it to data from the placebo group of the EGPS, the same predictive factors were identified. The hazard ratios for the predictive factors
References (48)
- et al.
Prevalence and causes of visual impairment in the Barbados Eye Study
Ophthalmology
(2001) - et al.
Prevalence of open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension in LatinosThe Los Angeles Latino Eye Study
Ophthalmology
(2004) - et al.
Incidence of open-angle glaucoma in a general elderly populationThe Rotterdam Study
Ophthalmology
(2005) - et al.
Five-year incidence of open-angle glaucoma: the Visual Impairment Project
Ophthalmology
(2002) - et al.
The relationship between glaucoma and myopia: the Blue Mountains Eye Study
Ophthalmology
(1999) - et al.
Open-angle glaucoma and older-onset diabetes: the Beaver Dam Eye Study
Ophthalmology
(1994) - et al.
Primary open-angle glaucoma, intraocular pressure, and diabetes mellitus in the general elderly population: the Rotterdam Study
Ophthalmology
(1996) - et al.
National survey of the prevalence and risk factors of glaucoma in StLucia, West IndiesPart I. Prevalence findings
Ophthalmology
(1989) - et al.
Vascular risk factors for primary open angle glaucoma: the Egna-Neumarkt Study
Ophthalmology
(2000) - et al.
Risk of glaucoma in ocular hypertension with and without pseudoexfoliation
Ophthalmology
(2005)
Number of people with glaucoma worldwide
Br J Ophthalmol
Racial differences in the cause-specific prevalence of blindness in east Baltimore
N Engl J Med
Models of open-angle glaucoma prevalence and incidence in the United States
Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci
The prevalence of glaucoma in a population-based study of Hispanic subjects: Proyecto VER
Arch Ophthalmol
The Framingham Eye Study monograph: an ophthalmological and epidemiological study of cataract, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, macular degeneration, and visual acuity in a general population of 2631 adults, 1973–1975
Surv Ophthalmol
Biostatistical analysis of the Collaborative Glaucoma StudyI. Summary report of the risk factors for glaucomatous visual-field defects
Arch Ophthalmol
Risk factors for the development of glaucomatous visual field loss in ocular hypertension
Arch Ophthalmol
The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study: a randomized trial determines that topical ocular hypotensive medication delays or prevents the onset of primary open-angle glaucoma
Arch Ophthalmol
Management of ocular hypertension: a cost-effectiveness approach from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study
Am J Ophthalmol
The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study: baseline factors that predict the onset of primary open-angle glaucoma
Arch Ophthalmol
Results of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study
Ophthalmology
The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study: design and baseline description of the participants
Arch Ophthalmol
The European Glaucoma Prevention Study design and baseline description of the participants
Ophthalmology
Cited by (261)
Risk Calculation in the Medication Arm of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study
2023, Ophthalmology GlaucomaThe American Glaucoma Society 100: Articles with Significant Impact on Clinical Glaucoma Care
2022, Ophthalmology GlaucomaUnderstanding racial disparities of glaucoma
2024, Current Opinion in OphthalmologyPolygenic Risk Scores for Glaucoma Onset in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study
2024, JAMA OphthalmologyGlaucoma: from pathogenic mechanisms to retinal glial cell response to damage
2024, Frontiers in Cellular Neuroscience
Manuscript no. 2006-545.
Supported by grants from the National Eye Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, and National Center for Minority Health and Health Disparities, Bethesda, Maryland (nos. EY09341, EY09307); European Commission, Brussels, Belgium (no. BMH4-CT-96-1598); Merck Research Laboratories, White House Station, New Jersey; Pfizer, Inc., New York, New York; and Research to Prevent Blindness, New York, New York (unrestricted).